How India's Economy Works What India’s Impressive GDP Growth Numbers Are Hiding
In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Partha Chatterjee and Dean of Academics at Shiv Nadar University. They talk about how the Indian economy is really performing beneath the headline numbers and what recent data signals about growth prospects through 2026. Drawing on the latest GDP estimates, inflation readings, labour market indicators, and credit trends, Chatterjee explains why strong real GDP growth and low inflation—hailed by the Reserve Bank of India as a “Goldilocks” phase—mask growing imbalances across sectors. He unpacks the widening gap between real and nominal GDP growth, the emergence of deflationary pressures in agriculture and parts of manufacturing, and why subdued price growth has serious implications for incomes, profitability, and government finances. The conversation examines the sources of current demand, including public capital expenditure, rising household credit, and the expanding role of cash transfers, and questions how sustainable this mix is over the medium term. Chatterjee also assesses the limits of industrial policy tools such as PLI schemes, their weak employment impact, and the risks posed by slowing job creation, stagnant rural wages, and rising import dependence. The discussion concludes with reflections on the policy trade-offs facing the government and the RBI, and why characterising the economy as “Goldilocks” risks complacency at a time of heightened global volatility. Tune in for insights on what India’s growth numbers reveal—and conceal—about jobs, incomes, fiscal space, and economic resilience.
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