Get Rich Education 284: Coronavirus And Your Money
The novel coronavirus threatens life, business, and the economy.
11 years of U.S. economic expansion could end soon.
(**The entire episode transcript is below. You can read along as you listen.)
Closed businesses mean that supply chains are disrupted. This could make it difficult for flippers and value-add apartment projects.
Travel, hospitality, and leisure business troubles mean that short-term rentals like AirBnB will have high vacancies.
Short-term rentals cater to business travelers and vacationers - both vulnerable in this downturn.
Long-term rentals are better positioned. As long as people are alive, they need a home.
Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest rate EVER since they've been tracked in 1971.
The Fed made a 0.5% emergency rate cut. Expect more cuts. This punishes savers and rewards borrowers.
Stocks recently fell more than 20% from their recent high; that's the definition of a bear market.
Coronavirus' effects are fast-moving and no one really knows the future. This is uncharted territory.
With this in mind, I'd expect real estate to fare better than other asset classes. Also expect:
Stronger: dollar, bonds, gold.
Weaker: many stocks & businesses, short-term rentals, oil, silver.
The unemployment rate will likely rise; I discuss what this means for your tenants.
Low mortgage interest rates can be locked in for 30 years, outlasting the coronavirus pandemic.
Check out our two new property providers in Orlando and Des Moines: getricheducation.com/orlando and getricheducation.com/iowa
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Complete episode transcript:
Welcome to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The coronavirus, COVID-nineteen, has infected humans and financial markets too.
This creates both problems and opportunities for you, the investor. Today, on Get Rich Education.
Welcome to GRE. From Uruguay to the Ukraine to the UAE to the USA and across 188 nations worldwide, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.
Yeah, you're back in that abundant place, where your QUALITY OF LIFE exceeds your cost of living.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-nineteen) that began in Wuhan, China in November of last year when it transferred from animal to human is poised to affect the economy of every world nation and every U.S. state.
It's not SARS or Zika.
This transmits easily and it is perhaps 20x more deadly than the common flu.
Some experts believe it's the worst outbreak in America since the Spanish flu of 1918.
That was the worst pandemic of the 20th century.
And you know what, it didn't have to be this way ... with coronavirus.
As my chief informant on the matter, Dr. Chris Martenson says, it didn't have to be this way.
Often placing the economy ahead of human life, health organizations and governments have often done a DEPLORABLE job of handling this, often understating the threat.
The World Health Organization was even reluctant to acknowledge that the coronavirus is a global pandemic … which it surely has been for a long time. Well, they only acknowledged that five days ago.
Well now that agencies weren't preparing people sooner - coronavirus is poised to threaten even more people - which in turn, will make the economy even worse than if the threat had just been accurately represented in the first place.
I'm going to focus on coronavirus' likely effects on real estate and the other financial markets shortly.
But let's - you and I - outline this together first.
The virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms for most people, like a fever and cough …
… but it can progress to serious illness including pneumonia, especially in older adults and people with existing health problems.
The World Health Organization says mild cases last about two weeks, while most patients with serious illness recover in about three to six weeks. Based on what I said earlier, consider the source there.
My heart goes out to the victims of this - past, present, and future.
The most credible source that I follow thinks that the virus will reach its peak in the U.S. 1 to 3 months from now.
I've followed this story closely since January and if you receive our Get Rich Education newsletter, you've known for a while that my favorite source of TRUSTWORTHY coronavirus information was and still is: the Peak Prosperity YouTube Channel, which Chris Martenson hosts.
In fact, I've mentioned that resource in our GRE newsletter for you twice - the first time was back on February 6th.
So if you get the Get Rich Education Newsletter, you've had plenty of time to get in front of this.
You know, it's interesting. I had Chris Martenson on the show here earlier this year and we talked about "The Fed" printing money. That was right before coronavirus literally went viral.
Before I tell you about the affects on your real estate - both good and bad - let's establish a baseline here.
Coronavirus is threatening because it has a substantially higher R-naught value than the flu.
If the R-naught value is greater than 1, that means that one infected person will spread the virus to MORE THAN one person then the disease can spread.
The way a virus dies out is for it's R-naught value to be less than 1. Then, one infected person, on average spreads it to fewer than one person.
Well, the common flu has an R-naught value of about 1.3.
Coronavirus (COVID-nineteen) is believed to have an R-naught value of more than 3 and maybe even more than 6. So it spreads easily.
It spreads asymptomatically - and that's bad.
There's no vaccine available - and most believe it'll take a while to develop one.
And, you can find resources elsewhere on how to prevent the spread like social distancing, avoiding gatherings, and lots of handwashing.
But because this is an investing platform and I don't have a degree in pathology or epidemiology, and much of what I just told you there, I learned myself in the past month or two …
Let me now get into my lane: how do I think coronavirus will affect your money and your real estate?
Well, it probably already has.
Businesses are closing. Colleges have suspended classes. Many events are being cancelled or postponed.
SXSW in Austin, Texas was one of the first major EVENTS to be cancelled in the U.S. March Madness basketball won't have any crowd there.
We've got an entire country - Italy - that's essentially shut down.
When businesses close and more people work from home, this disrupts supply chains.
That COULD include less supply of sheet rock or faucet handles or whatever - and affect value-add properties because so much building material comes from China.
It could be a tougher time to be a flipper then if you're about to start a rehab or if you're in the middle of a rehab.
If you're upgrading an apartment building, that could slow things down. You need materials.
This may or may not create disruptions for turnkey property providers. We'll see.
You're in a better position if you're a prospective turnkey buyer waiting on a rehab - maybe that'll create a delay until your property is ready. Maybe it won't.
China accounts for nearly 30% of world manufacturing.
But importantly, they also make component goods for finished products.
An American car can't be finished if it doesn't have the battery and exhaust system from China.
Virtually every major car company has a component made in China.
Now, I see conflicting reports of whether some previously closed Chinese businesses have really come back online or not. We need to learn more there.
Travel, hospitality, and leisure businesses are already hurting.
Now, where hospitality meets real estate, we've got hotel rooms, Bed & Breakfasts and short-term rental platforms like AirBnB and VRBO.
Like I've said before, and not too long ago on the show at all - is that these short-term rentals are not very recession-resistant.
That's because short-term rentals cater to two main groups of people - business travelers and vacationers. That's who occupies those properties.
Well, what are business travelers and vacationers doing right now? They are postponing travel or cancelling travel left-and-right due to coronavirus concerns.
How great would you feel about owning AirBnBs right now?
Short-term rentals like AirBnBs are not as recession-resistant as long-term rentals.
Just a couple, three months ago, it probably sounded different to you when I mentioned that short-term rentals aren't very recession-resistant.
Because perhaps you were still feeling good about our 11-year-long economic expansion.
But those same words probably sound and feel different to you now that some think that a coronavirus-induced recession could even be imminent - though that remains to be seen.
Also, expect big hits to: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics.
Apple Corporation is so dependent on Chinese manufacturing for their iPhone. That's the bad news.
Now, let's talk about the good news.
Mortgage interest rates have hit all-time lows - yes, lower than their lows that they hit in 2012, shortly after coming off of the Great Recession.
All-time lows - as long as Freddie Mac has been tracking them - which is since 1971. They've never been lower than they are now.
Today, you can get a rate in the low 3s for primary residences, I've even heard of a few people closing 30-year fixed amortizing loans for less than 3%. Just astoundingly good.
And of course, investor loans are often about ¾% higher than those.
The Fed has been pumping tens of billions, even hundreds of billions into the system lately … for bank liquidity.
The Fed's emergency interest rate cut of 0.5% two weeks ago is first time we've seen such a move since 2008.
That 2008 cut was in the wake of The Great Recession - that was the Lehman Brothers emergency one-half-of-one-percent cut.
Just a quick economics primer if you're a new listener - lower interest rates for loans stoke the economy because they make you more willing to borrow & spend.
Interest rate cuts help the investor class like you, and not poor people. That's just the truth behind who cuts actually help. It's you!
It helps the Get Rich Education listener - you again - even more because we're such strong proponents of responsible and sensible borrowing here.
Now, note that lower rates don't help contain the diseas. If your grandparent gets sick, Jerome Powell's decisions aren't going to help that.
Right, how low would rates have to be to get you to travel to China or Italy tomorrow?
By the way, after the rate cut, President Trump was not satisfied with the amount of easing and cutting.
"More easing and cutting!" is what he tweeted following the central bank's announcement.
But realize, of course, that long-term mortgage rates don't move on that Fed Funds rate. The Fed controls the short-term rate - though there's generally still a correlation there.
Long-term mortgage rates - like the ones that you really care about for real estate - they move with bond yields.
Now, bonds are like the boring can of beans or soup in the finance world - they're safe and they're stable.
Vigorous bond-buying makes bond prices go up and makes bond yields go down.
So this strong bond-buying … this safe have ... has dropped the 10-Year Treasury Note yield below 1% for the first time ever … and it's fallen substantially below 1% in just a fantastic fall off the table.
OK, so they're below 1% - and that's a rate that was unthinkable just a few months ago.
Do you know what the average spread is between this bond yield and the 30-year mortgage rate?
On average, mortgage interest rates hover 1.8% above this rate, so you can see how low we could be going.
I think that the historic spread will widen, but despite the fact that we now have record - I mean all-time record low mortgage rates, there's a good chance that they'll go a little lower yet.
This is great for your new real estate buys. Refinance activity is surging right now.
But back to short-term rates that the Fed influences - more cuts there seem imminent too.
The next one could happen at the Fed's regularly scheduled meeting, which happens tomorrow and the next day.
So you'll hear an announcement from The Fed this Wednesday about their rate cut decision.
The Fed loaded up with dry powder in 2018 when they raised rates, so that they can lower them at a time like this.
Every time they cut the rate like this, it punishes savers and rewards borrowers.
No one knows if rates will go negative - and only a few places in the world have those right now: places like Japan, Denmark, and Switzerland. We've never had them in America.
U.S. stock market investors are getting killed with all this uncertainty. Indices are whipsawing with volatility.
Fear pushes stocks around, but not RE. The U.S. stock market dropped 3% in just minutes when a report came out that in CA, a large number of people were exposed to coronavirus, but weren't.
Last week was the first time that major stock indices dipped into bear market territory. That's defined as a 20% loss from a recent high.
There was one recent trading day - just one day - where the S&P dropped 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, which paused trading for everyone for 15 minutes.
Yeah, now we're talking about all these automatic fail-safes. When the stock market loses so much, so soon, there's a pause in trading.
By the way, the way it works is that if the S&P had declined 13% in a day, trading would've paused another 15 minutes.
20% in a day, and everyone would have gone home for the day. That's how it works.
Yeah, they put those circuit breakers in place after 1987's Black Monday, when the market fell between 22 and 23%.
Stock drops are always sickening,l and if you're within 5 years of retirement, stock drops are really scary.
I've told you before that I haven't owned any stock, mutual fund, or ETF since 2014 and that's still true today.
Being in something stable like real estate has rarely felt as good as it has lately.
And you know something, "volatility" is a funny word.
It seems like "volatility" used to mean something that changes rapidly, and anymore, it's morphed into something that only means a change for the worse.
Warren Buffett says, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I believe that. I'd even say that - not just the stock market - but just that, "MARKETS OVERALL are devices for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
Real estate investors like us are more patient. There's no flash-selling in real estate. It might take you 30, 60 days or more to sell a property … or to buy a property.
I'd expect to see a stronger U.S. dollar because the world views it as a safe haven asset.
I expect this to be a nice tailwind for real estate too, because the world views U.S. real estate as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty.
Gold should be strong with coronavirus concerns. That's easy to say, since gold is the classic safe haven asset.
But remember that gold might not APPEAR stronger to Americans if the dollar strengthens.
That's how it works. Because if gold goes up 10% and the dollar also gets 10% stronger, well then it takes just as many dollars to buy the gold.
The dollar-denominated gold price would look the same then.
I've read that a number of experts predict silver prices to rise on coronavirus concerns, but then I don't see any sound rationale for them thinking this.
I disagree. I would NOT expect silver to rise.
That's because silver has more industrial use than gold and more industrial slowdown is expected.
Let's talk more about your income properties in this coronavirus environment.
Though I'm speculating now, what if your tenant is required to self-quarantine at home and they lose their income?
This is not far-fetched.
Washington state officials were really some of the first in the U.S. to recommend that workers stay at home when they suggested that Seattle-area residents work from home.
More & more people can work from home today than anytime in modern history.
But when we're talking about your tenants, it's unlikely that all of your tenants will lose substantial income.
Now, there are some positions where people can't work from home so well, like mechanics, janitors, chefs and wait staff, sure. Let's consider that ...
The current unemployment rate is 3.5%.
I'm really speculating here, but if 1 in 10 of your tenants is both laid off & without income, that's a 10% increase in unemployment. That would be huge.
That would be like the unemployment rate going from 3.5% all the way up to 13.5% - which seems unfathomable!
And yes, realize that if 1 in 10 people were laid off it wouldn't exactly make the 3.5% unemployment rate shoot up to 13.5%. It doesn't exactly work that way with how it's calculated.
But, I think you get my point.
If 1 in 10 of your tenants were both laid off and without employment, that would be massive. So keep that in perspective. Even 1 in 10 would be a lot.
Last week, Trump floated the idea of a payroll tax cut, which I don't think would do much of anything to help - and also, extending paid leave which seems more helpful.
Companies, especially those in the service sector, are under pressure to provide paid sick leave to workers who may not be in a financial position to take time off.
Wal-Mart and McDonald's put in safeguards for their employees.
Congress might step in. A bill has been introduced that would require companies of all sizes to provide paid sick leave.
Could your overall rental income go down? Maybe, though you have to speculate quite a bit to even think that 1 in 10 would go without an income. So that's a maybe.
But does your mortgage interest rate go down? Definitely. It already has.
What about you?
If you lose your job, you need multiple income streams ... from places like your rentals.
And if 9 out of 10 … or 10 out of 10 of your tenants still have jobs, you probably still have that income stream because you set up your life for multiple income streams if you've been listening to this show & acting.
What about you - what about your job? Well ...
The lower your financial freedom, the higher the risk.
The more income streams you've built, the better off you are.
What about your job? The lower your financial freedom, the higher the risk.
Another benefit of a paid sick leave movement gaining momentum, is that "When people gain access to paid sick leave, the spread of the flu decreases."
Because they're more likely to stay home then. So that makes paid sick leave seem like more of reality.
It's important in this situation that when you have people who have symptoms and don't feel well, that they do not go to work and spread diseases to slow the infection rate and buy time for public health officials to develop a vaccine.
Let's look at oil prices - because that's a substantial input to inflation and oil is a real proxy for what's going on in the economy.
Oil prices have crumbled faster than a Nature Valley Granola bar.
And that's even before a coronavirus-induced slowdown.
What's happened, is that with President Trump in the White House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate, environmental activists have shifted their focus from pressuring the government to pressuring the private sector instead.
Since JPMorgan is such a big financier of the fossil fuel industry, activists have really turned up the heat on them and other big banks to stop financing oil projects.
That's significant - on top of a slowdown in the economy - if fewer goods need to be produced and shipped, it uses less energy and then there's less demand for oil.
Low oil prices are generally good for consumers but bad for producer countries.
In the U.S., low oil prices are not good for real estate in areas like west Texas, parts of Louisiana, and Alaska.
But, of course, there's the flip side of all this. At some point, low stock and oil prices mean that bargain hunters come in to float the market again at some point.
In fact, billionaire investor Sam Zell recently made remarks that oil looks like a "buy low" opportunity.
So let's look at the bottom line - real estate is still quite well-positioned as long as you're in residential, long-term rentals that you bought for cash flow.
Elsewhere: Bonds win, gold wins, the US dollar wins, many business sectors - like the ones I mentioned - lose, stocks lose, oil loses, and silver loses.
Of course, let me qualify all that by telling you that that's my outlook and that we don't have any recent precedent for anything else like the coronavirus. No one REALLY knows. That's my take.
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If you happen to be a new listener to the show, you may not know much about me. I've authored many written articles for both Forbes and the Rich Dad Advisors.
Business Insider recently wrote two stories about me and Get Rich Education - and how I've helped everyday people create financial freedom through real estate investing.
That's what I do here!
I'm a current member of the Forbes Real Estate Council.
But maybe the more important things I can tell you are that I've been the host of this show every week - and I mean EVERY week continuously since 2014 - you can count on me to keep showing up here.
I own three real estate trademarks. In 2017, I authored an international best-selling book on how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy.
And perhaps the most important thing I can tell you is that I invest right alongside you, from the exact same providers that we talk about here.
Though I travel pretty well, I've lived my entire life in the United States, dividing this life of mine between two states - Pennsylvania and Alaska.
I have spent the last 2-and-a-half weeks visiting four countries - the United Arab Emirates, Oman, India, and Sri Lanka. Though I'm a real estate guy, I have a degree in geography so I like to travel.
One of the coolest things I did is sandboarding on a sand dune in the Arabian Desert there in the United Arab Emirates.
I couldn't find another interested person, so I did that activity all by myself. Going high in the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, was a "must" while we were there.
Muscat, Oman has some surprisingly beautiful sights, and buildings, and mosques that we toured. Really clean-looking there in the nation of Oman.
Immersing myself in Indian culture is something that was really novel to me - the food, the way that - the women especially in some of these outlying provinces like Goa and Kerala, India - the way the women dress in such colorful outfits ... just if they're walking to the market to buy some guava. Such an exotic feeling there.
The coolest thing that I did is visiting the world's largest slum. It's called Dharavi and it's in Mumbai, India. It's just sooo different from my world.
There are actually bustling little businesses inside the slums there - from plastic recycling to pottery. And the Indian people were so welcoming - even in the slums - which was just amazing to me.
As I like to say, seeing poverty enriched me. :o)
I've got more on coronavirus and your money straight ahead.
A fair bit of what I've discussed here about coronavirus and your money and your real estate, is material that I sent in our wealth-building Get Rich Education newsletter about 12 days ago.
The newsletter is a nice, written supplement to the podcast. Of course, you can unsubscribe at any time - but very few do.
My wealth-building newsletter is something that you can subscribe to … for free … at GetRichEducation.com You'll be glad you did.
You're listening to Get Rich Education.
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Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.
It's unknown whether coronavirus will tilt the economy into a recession or not. It's too soon to know. I'll keep you updated on that here, of course.
For you, I think it helps to listen to a perspective that's invested through a recession before.
I've been investing directly in real estate since 2002 - which was before the Great Recession.
I made a major income property purchase in 2007 - which was just within that recession (in fact, I mentioned that four-plex purchase last week on the show).
And I kept buying in 2010, as the recession wound down - and in 2012.
Well, what's the common thread there? It's that I continued to prosper because I bought for cash flow first.
It's that I bought in multiple geographic markets for diversification - a recession-resilient strategy.
Residential rentals that were leased to long-term tenants.
People need a place to live. And as long as they're alive, a virus is not going to change that.
But see, a virus might mean people stop using vacation rentals and stop taking business trips and stop going to the mall and stop going to the office to work.
We're talking about HOMES. Well, we could soon have more people working from … home.
Not office, not retail, not short-term rentals. They all look vulnerable now.
And by the way, that doesn't mean I'm a permabear on those asset types. There's always opportunity. But recession-resistence just isn't one of their qualities.
I'm not saying short-term rentals never make an ounce of sense or anything like that.
Some companies are basically using the coronavirus as an experiment for that moment when "working remotely could broadly replace working in-person."
Some people think that time is coming.
This can ACCELERATE THE - you're seeing the acronym "WFM" around a lot more now -
- the "work from home" movement. As people get more used to using workflow software and using platforms like Slack or Trello from home because they HAVE to, you know, when coronavirus passes - and it will - some might ask, now why return to an office all?
With each passing day, the camp of people believing that this is all fear-mongering loses troops.
We'll see if the peak for coronavirus will be that 1-3 months from now like some experts predict. That's the latest I've heard from credible sources. But again, we really don't know.
That's why I like to focus on things that we do know. So let's focus on what we do know now:
The coronavirus threat will pass sometime. We just don't know when. But it will pass.
A second thing we know is that people will continue to need a home - a place to live.
And thirdly, mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level in American history.
So with those being the things that we DO know - this can be QUITE an opportunity to not only lock up investment property buys at historically low rates, but potentially, do that cash-out refinance of your existing home if you think that that's in your best interest.
Procrastinators often aren't rewarded. But, hey, maybe you are this time with rates being this low - or maybe you really weren't because you had dead equity accumulated in one place for too long.
With borrowing rates underneath the basement, a lot of homeowners are racing to lock in cheaper loans.
I think we could see low to mid 3% rates on investment properties, and below 3% on primary residences.
Mortgage refinancing applications have more than doubled in volume from the same time last year - that's according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
And industry records are being shattered. Bloomberg reported that :
The country's No. 1 mortgage lender, Quicken Loans, recently had its busiest day for mortgage applications in its 35-year history.
United Wholesale Mortgage approved a single-day record of $2.5 billion in loans.
These stories are all over the place.
The thing is, to process this flood of applications you're going to need a lot of people. So the mortgage industry is on a hiring spree to take advantage of the gold rush.
Our preferred mortgage provider is doing a lot of volume now as well - RidgeLendingGroup.com - that's R-I-D-G-E.
Just calculate your ROI just from principal reduction alone at these low rates. It's pretty remarkable.
I think that the thing that you need to remember is … that long-term thinking.
"Investing should not be about a MOMENT; it should be about a PROCESS OVER TIME."
Some of the classic problems with GETTING STARTED in real estate are ones that I've helped solve for you here.
I think that Problem 1 for people is that they feel like it costs a small fortune to GET started.
Problem 2 is FINDING the property. Often times, it's because properties in your area don't make sense with your 20% down payment and 80% loan.
I've really helped solve both of those problems.
By selecting investor-advantaged markets, with down payment & closing costs you can get started with as low as … about $18K - and they're in areas where the numbers make sense … all at the website … GREturnkey.com
In fact, at the top of the page there, there's that 8-step flowchart where I walk you through the process.
You start by getting pre-approved for a mortgage - I even suggest where - and then reading an investor due diligence report …
… all the way through to viewing properties, making an offer, getting your third-party inspection, appraisal, signing your Management Agreement, Closing on the Property … and then the really good part - years of owning and collecting the rent.
It's rarely been easier - though the process still takes time & you need to supply your mortgage loan underwriter with plenty of documentation.
That's all outlined at the same place where I buy my property: GREturnkey.com
What about some current highlights over there?
Well, it's a great time to invest in Florida for a lot of reasons - you'll find providers in Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville.
Our Orlando provider was recently added - they're now - and they have NEW CONSTRUCTION - yes, newly-built, never-before occupied - single-family homes and duplexes … and they're in locations from the Space Coast to The Villages, through Orlando, and nearly out to Tampa.
We've got another new provider on the page if you're looking for more cash flow and less appreciation than what you'd typically get on new construction, and that is in … Iowa.
Yeah, I'm proud to introduce the Des Moines, Iowa market to you today.
It's a model of midwestern stability and Des Moines has an MSA population of 600 to 700,000 people.
Des Moines has seen an average 3.6% appreciation over the last twenty years. I think of it as a cash flow market.
A lot of times, you might be buying for, say a 4 or 6 or 8 or 10% cash-on-cash return today.
If you have a little more patience and you want to potentially double your CCR, then, rather than the turnkey model - where you buy a property that's already renovated - you might prefer the BRRRR model.
That stands for Buy – Renovate – Rent – Refinance – and Recycle Model - recycling your money to re-use right away.
That BRRRR model is suited to Baltimore, Maryland - within commuter distance to Washington, D.C. at just a fraction of the price.
All those markets - including the new turnkey markets with inventory TODAY in Orlando and Des Moines, plus the Baltimore BRRRR market, plus that 8-step flowchart that helps serve as a roadmap for you are all in one convenient place - all on one page - at GREturnkey.com
Market uncertainty is a short-term phenomena.
But when you lock up these lowest mortgage interest rates in American history - they can last you 30 years.
When the dust settles from any current news, you know what, you've still going to have your mortgage rate.
Stay safe. Enjoy these historically low mortgage interest rates … I sure am. Take action at GREturnkey.com
I'm Keith Weinhold and I'll be back next week to help you build your wealth. Don't quit your daydream!