Milk Road Macro The Government Is Engineering a Business Cycle Surge Into 2026 w/ Andreas Steno Larsen
Feb 5, 2026
Andreas Steno Larsen, economist and founder of Steno Research, explains why the 15-year macro playbook is broken. He warns AI is compressing SaaS, exposing private credit, and driving a rotation into hardware, energy, metals, and infrastructure. He links a big ISM surge to tax-driven CapEx incentives that could push corporate investment into 2026.
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Greenland Mining Deal Example
- Andreas recounts the Greenland mining deal where ore is processed in Saudi Arabia then shipped to the U.S. for defense uses.
- He uses the example to show how the EU got sidelined while the U.S. moved fast on strategic minerals.
Deglobalization Is Driving Policy Action
- The Western response to China weaponizing supply chains has accelerated deglobalization and dual supply‑chain creation.
- Andreas sees the U.S. acting more decisively than the EU on strategic resource security.
Fed Leadership Could Become More Political
- Kevin Warsh will align the Fed with the 2026 Republican agenda and may echo political priorities more than past Fed chairs.
- Andreas expects a notable shift in rhetoric and potential politicization of the Fed under Warsh.