The Breakdown Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated | Forward Guidance
Apr 2, 2026
Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve Board governor known for his work on monetary policy, discusses why inflation worries are overblown. He explains oil shocks versus core trends. He explores how AI and deregulation can lower prices. He outlines views on neutral rates and describes skinny master accounts, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits as payment innovations to watch.
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Measured Inflation Is Partly A Measurement Issue
- Stephen Miran sees measured inflation overstated by measurement quirks and believes the labor market needs more support from monetary policy.
- He cites portfolio management services biasing CPI by ~30–40 basis points and three years of gradual labor-market cooling as context.
Look Through Short Term Oil Shocks
- Miran argues the Fed must set policy for 12–18 months ahead because monetary policy works with long lags.
- He says oil shocks raise headline inflation immediately but have little effect 12–18 months out when policy takes effect.
AI And Deregulation Are Persistent Disinflationary Forces
- Positive supply shocks—AI and deregulation—are disinflationary and can persistently lower inflation.
- Miran cites his January estimate (≈0.5% annual drag) and Fed staff paper (~0.3%) as consistent disinflationary effects.