Milk Road Macro The $1 Trillion Stablecoin Shift That Could Break Global Banks w/ Geoffrey Kendrick
Mar 24, 2026
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, gives a data-driven look at how stablecoins could pull $1 trillion of capital and unsettle global banks. He discusses dollar stablecoins drawing emerging market deposits, tokenized money market growth, corporate treasury use for cross-border payments, and why Ethereum may benefit as TradFi moves on-chain.
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Conflict And User Flows May Have Prevented A Bitcoin Capitulation
- Geoffrey expected ETF holders to capitulate pushing BTC to $50k but the Middle East conflict and increased user flows may have established the $60k low.
- He cites Ukraine stablecoin flows (4% of global stablecoins) as an example of conflict-driven crypto usage.
Stablecoins Are A Direct Threat To Bank Deposits
- Stablecoins threaten bank deposits by offering easier dollar access, especially in emerging markets.
- Geoff Kendrick notes emerging market users can move savings into dollar-backed stablecoins via VPNs, creating deposit outflows and banking concerns.
Regulation Likely Keeps Direct Stablecoin Yield Banned
- Kendrick expects the no-direct-yield status quo for U.S. regulated stablecoins to continue, but indirect yield via exchanges and DeFi will persist.
- He sees Clarity Act passing as helpful but likely won't change the immediate ban on direct stablecoin yield.