#57 – Robbie Ferguson: Why Good Games Fail (Data from 690+ Launches)

Why do 90% of games fail, even when the game itself is good?

Today, I sit down with Robbie Ferguson, Co-Founder at Immutable, to break down the real data-backed reasons most games never make their money back, and what the top-performing studios do differently.

Robbie shares insights from 690+ funded game launches, explains why Steam wishlists are often misleading, and reveals how pre-launch audience warming, cohort quality, and lifecycle marketing determine whether a game succeeds or dies quietly.

If you’re a game founder, marketer, indie dev, publisher, or investor, this is a must-watch breakdown of modern game economics and launch strategy.

Connect with Robbie:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robbieferguson/
Website: https://www.immutable.com/free-demo-campaign

Connect with Harry:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hphokou/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@hphokou
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hphokou

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Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:40 What Immutable actually does (beyond “Web3”)
02:59 690+ funded game launches & why most fail
03:38 Why Robbie is still obsessed with fixing game launches
05:24 Why marketing efficiency matters more than game quality
09:48 Why sending traffic straight to Steam is a mistake
13:01 Predicting player spend before launch
16:12 Doubling wishlists AND conversion rates
17:37 The #1 pre-launch mistake devs make
19:24 What an optimal modern marketing team looks like
21:25 Personalisation, AI, and player archetypes
23:19 What a “whale” actually looks like (surprising answer)
25:23 AI, oversupply, and the future of game distribution
27:10 Apple tax, margins, and why economics are changing
29:00 Why “Web3 games” is the wrong framing
32:14 Why AAA studios are shifting to influencer marketing
36:20 East vs West: how Asia builds and tests games differently
39:55 Using launch data to raise funding
44:09 Robbie’s hardest lessons building Immutable
47:20 Identifying and solving business constraints
52:36 Should founders spend time pitching publishers?
54:28 Robbie’s real motivation & long-term vision