FARSIGHT Pax Geriatrica w/ Mark Haas
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Oct 2, 2025 In this discussion, Professor Mark L. Haas, a political science expert at Duquesne University and author of The Geriatric Peace, explores the intriguing idea that an aging population might lead to global stability. He argues that older nations have diminished capacities and preferences for war, potentially hindering the U.S.-China power transition. Haas shares insights on how demographics shape military capabilities, economic productivity, and governance, asserting that the dynamics of aging could make conflicts less likely over time.
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Productivity Drops With An Older Workforce
- Aging lowers economic productivity by shrinking the workforce and reducing the most productive 40–50 age cohort.
- Lower productivity hurts a nation's ability to innovate and produce cutting-edge military systems.
Treat AI As A Critical Wild Card
- Consider AI as a critical uncertainty that could offset or exacerbate demographic effects on war and economy.
- Monitor whether AI substitutes labor or creates social disruption, because either outcome reshapes aging-related forecasts.
Older Electorates Shift Toward Restraint
- Older populations value soldiers more and become less supportive of the use of force as they age.
- These preference shifts and the political need to protect welfare push governments away from risky foreign adventures.
