Cloud 9fin Navigating downturns with Hilco’s Jamie Sprayregen
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Nov 25, 2025 Jamie Sprayregen, Vice Chairman of Global Strategy and Growth at Hilco Global, shares his insights from decades in restructuring law and rescue finance. He discusses how AI is reshaping the market and the rise of asset-backed securities from stressed issuers as creative restructuring tools. Jamie reflects on the fraud risks highlighted by the downfall of First Brands and emphasizes the need for improved diligence. He also addresses the potential impacts of tariffs and government shutdowns on the economy, while predicting a steady pace of restructurings leading into 2026.
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Private Credit Cycle Is Still Ahead
- The private credit market hasn't yet faced a full credit cycle since its rapid expansion, so risks may be opaque and lagging.
- Defaults may surface slowly and be hard to detect until they become obvious.
Fraud Will Reappear; Diligence Matters
- Fraud exists and will be discovered sporadically, prompting stronger due diligence and monitoring.
- Lessons from cases like First Brands are still emerging and will shape future practices.
Monitor Amendments Not Just Defaults
- Use the smaller, less public private credit forum to negotiate directly and act quickly when borrower stress arises.
- Monitor for amendments and forbearance activity as defaults are lagging indicators in private markets.