The Market Huddle LOUIS TURNS THE TABLES ON KEV (Guest: Louis-Vincent Gave)
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Apr 11, 2026 
Louis-Vincent Gave, founder of Gavekal and veteran macro investor, flips the script and puts Kevin under the microscope. They tackle contrarian thinking, central banks shifting into gold, fiscal policy reshaping capital flows, and why long-duration plays and private credit matter now. Quick, provocative, and packed with market color.
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Oil Shock Is A Multi-Month Growth Tax
- Higher oil is already tightening real economic activity and inventories will take months to normalize even after a ceasefire.
- Shipping bottlenecks and hoarding mean sub-$80 oil is unlikely this year; knock-on effects on growth are larger and longer-lasting.
Target Private Credit And Managers Not Public High Yield
- Avoid shorting public high-yield indexes; focus on private credit and alternative managers instead.
- Kevin notes risky borrowers moved into private credit and BDCs/alternative asset managers carry concentrated liquidity and mark-to-market risk.
Use Long-Dated Options For Patient Asymmetric Exposure
- Do use long-dated options to create patient asymmetric exposure to macro themes.
- Kevin learned from Morris Sachs and Jim Leitner that long-term options provide leverage plus time, allowing positions to survive noisy drawdowns.