The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Did “TACO Trump” just permanently cede control of global energy markets to Iran?
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Mar 23, 2026 A fast take on escalating Middle East tensions and what delayed U.S. action could mean for global energy pricing. Markets’ relief rally and whipsaws after a five-day deferral get examined. The potential for Strait of Hormuz control to shift pricing power is explored. China liquidity moves and shifting monetary policy risks are also discussed.
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Delay Could Hand Iran Energy Pricing Power
- President Trump delayed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, creating a risky cross-asset relief rally.
- Darius Dale warns Iran could use negotiations to cement control of the Strait of Hormuz and thus marginal global energy pricing power.
Don't Trust Short Term Relief Rallies
- Avoid trusting the immediate relief rally in energy and risk assets after the announced five-day delay.
- Darius Dale recommends investors be wary over the next few days because Iran may press advantages instead of conceding during talks.
Geopolitics Made Fed Policy Bimodal
- Geopolitical outcomes now create a bimodal distribution of likely monetary policy paths for the Fed.
- Chicago Fed's Austin Goolsbee and other Fed speakers say the Fed could either tighten or ease depending on how Middle East tensions affect inflation.