ABC News Daily Will Trump escalate or end the war?
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Apr 1, 2026 Kelly A. Grieco, a defense strategist and senior fellow at the Stimson Center, breaks down U.S. choices on Iran. She discusses the costly challenge of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. She weighs whether claims of victory are realistic and what a U.S. withdrawal would mean for regional security. She outlines the limits of troop movements, island operations, and the long war risks of any ground campaign.
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Administration Prioritises Tacticals Over Strait Commitment
- The Trump administration is focused on measurable military wins while avoiding commitment on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Kelly Grieco says the administration emphasises ship counts and missile strikes but recognises there are no good military options to clear mines and secure the strait.
Allies Pressed After Being Left Out Of Decision Making
- The White House is asking allies to shoulder risks it started without consulting them, creating inconsistency and resentment.
- Kelly Grieco notes Trump demanded allies do more for their own neighborhoods, then asked them to secure the Middle East after launching the war unilaterally.
Regime Change Claim Is Largely Political Rhetoric
- Claims of Iranian regime change are largely rhetorical and may be a face-saving way for Trump to end the war.
- Grieco argues Tehran is the same revolutionary government, though intermediated talks and Iran's five-point response hint at negotiation openings.