The Hotel Investor Playbook Why 2026 Looks Rocky for U.S. Hotels And Where Smart Investors Can Hit Big | Jan Freitag E50
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Sep 23, 2025 Jan Freitag, the National Director of Hospitality Analytics at CoStar Group, offers keen insights into the hotel industry's future. He discusses why the market shifted to stagnation and the risks of rising expenses outpacing revenue growth. Jan highlights the luxury segment's resilience and how local market nuances impact recovery. He emphasizes the importance of data analytics in identifying investment opportunities and shares strategies for succeeding in the sub-$10M market amidst a challenging landscape.
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U.S. Inbound Travel Is Weakening
- International inbound travel to the U.S. is deteriorating, led by weaker Canadian flows.
- The I-92/APIS dataset gives near-real-time city-pair insight to validate inbound trends.
City Recoveries: NYC, San Francisco, Miami
- New York City regained strength after Airbnb restrictions removed short-term supply and improved pricing power.
- San Francisco and Miami are also showing pockets of investor optimism and recovery.
Confirm Comebacks With Rooms Sold, Not Hype
- Validate comebacks by tracking whether you actually sell more rooms versus 2019 and month-over-month.
- Use occupancy and rooms-sold trends, not just headline ADR, to confirm recovery.