EconoFact Chats Lessons from a Decade into Brexit
Jan 25, 2026
Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford economics professor who studies productivity and uncertainty, shares reflections from a decade after Brexit. He covers why the referendum happened, regional and demographic divides, the pound’s sudden crash, and how trade frictions, prolonged uncertainty, and distracted management eroded GDP over time.
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Personal Connection To The Vote
- Nicholas Bloom describes his personal ties: he grew up in London and later became a dual UK–US national.
- He also voted in the 2016 referendum and his wife is from Glasgow, Scotland.
Brexit Mirrors Populist Coalitions
- Brexit support mirrored demographic patterns similar to Trump's base: older, lower-income, less-educated, and from poorer regions.
- London and younger, richer areas clustered with Remain, creating a strong regional divide.
Markets React To Surprises
- Markets rapidly repriced Brexit when the unexpected result moved probability from 25% to 100% overnight.
- The pound's one-day crash reflected three-quarters of the expected long-run impact on value.