Squiz Today Squiz Shortcuts: Wagering on warfare
Mar 24, 2026
Lizzie O'Shea, lawyer, author and chair of Digital Rights Watch who fights for human rights online. The conversation digs into betting markets that let people wager on real-world events. It covers how these platforms work, the anonymity and crypto angles, and the ethical and regulatory concerns raised by profiting from conflict and tragedy.
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How Prediction Markets Price Real World Events
- Prediction markets like Polymarket function like stock markets where a share pays $1 if an event occurs.
- Shares trade at prices reflecting probability, e.g., a 49¢ share on a US strike meant doubling money if it happened by a date.
Users Bet Against Each Other Not The House
- Polymarket matches users against each other rather than betting against a house, so every winner requires a loser.
- That structure combined with crypto-based anonymity lets people place sensitive bets largely in secret.
Regulatory Risks Drive Legal Pushback
- Regulators worry prediction markets enable market-sensitive bets and potential insider trading because they're lightly licensed.
- Polymarket was fined and later bought a licensed firm to relaunch legally in the US in December.