Future Discontinuous What does the fall of Assad mean for Russia, Mark Galeotti?
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Dec 13, 2024 
Mark Galeotti, a prominent expert on Russian politics and security, dives into the implications of Assad's fall on Russia's foreign policy. He discusses Moscow's shock and the strategic value of Syria, highlighting the potential complications for Russia's military presence in Africa. Galeotti also explores the evolving Russia-Iran relationship and the pragmatic path towards rebuilding ties with Israel. He warns of the brittle nature of Putin’s regime and the economic pressures that could impact Russia's ongoing actions in Ukraine.
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Kyiv Uses Syrian Fallout Against Putin
- Ukraine sees strategic advantage in highlighting Russian association with Assad to delegitimise Putin.
- Kyiv worries that a messy Syrian civil war could distract US attention and reduce support for Ukraine.
Tactical Gains, Strategic Costs
- On the battlefield, Russia is making slow gains but at unsustainable manpower cost, losing roughly two soldiers for every recruit.
- Russia can likely hold or modestly advance now but cannot sustain current tempo long-term.
Russia Has Roughly A Year Buffer
- Economists expect Russia has about a year before economic strain forces hard guns-vs.-butter choices.
- Putin prioritises short-term survival and may endure through 2025 despite longer-term demographic and economic decline.
