The Milk Road Show Can Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing? w/ Ark Invest
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Apr 1, 2026 
Ray Hadi, ARK Invest research associate focused on crypto payments and blockchains, and Lorenzo Valente, ARK director researching crypto, quantum risk, and market impact. They debate Google’s Shor algorithm claims and revised quantum timelines. They highlight which chains and dormant wallets are most exposed. They explore upgrade paths, coordination hurdles, and how institutions may demand quantum-proof roadmaps.
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Google Paper Accelerates Quantum Timelines
- Google published research suggesting a ~20x efficiency improvement for running Shor's algorithm, moving estimated threat timelines from the 2035–40s to around 2029–2030.
- Lorenzo Valente says this raises urgency for L1s to plan quantum-proof cryptography and will pressure Bitcoin core devs to put a roadmap in place.
ECDSA Vulnerability Is Universal
- Every blockchain using ECDSA (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc.) is potentially vulnerable once quantum can run Shor's algorithm at scale.
- Ray Hadi notes Ethereum already published a post-quantum roadmap targeting 2029, while chains with frequent upgrades can adapt faster.
Satoshi Coins Are The Highest Immediate Risk
- The most immediate high-risk assets are coins whose addresses expose public keys—Satoshi's coins and many early addresses—because quantum can derive private keys from those public keys.
- Lorenzo estimates about a third of Bitcoin supply sits in addresses at higher risk, making Satoshi's coins a focal concern.