Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Will The Iran War Crash The Markets? | Michael Lebowitz
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Mar 7, 2026 Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager and market analyst focused on risk controls and sector allocation. He discusses market moves after the Iran conflict, why portfolios are being trimmed to neutral, technical triggers to watch like the 100/200-day moving averages, stresses in private credit and widening spreads, and the dollar’s rising impact on bonds and emerging markets.
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Bonds React To Deficit Fears More Than Safety
- Bond yields rose after Iran because markets see higher oil and war costs as inflationary and deficit-increasing, which pushes yields up.
- Lebowitz views recent bond moves as reflecting deficit/term-premium fears more than a pure flight-to-quality.
Watch Credit Spreads For Private Credit Spillover
- Do monitor corporate credit spreads, LQD vs JNK, and bank share performance to spot private credit stress before it spills to broader markets.
- Lebowitz watches BBB spreads and ETF price action daily as a canary for systemic risk.
Dollar Strength Can Outweigh Oil In Market Impact
- A stronger dollar is a powerful, underappreciated market driver that harms precious metals and foreign assets by raising dollar-denominated borrowing costs.
- Lebowitz argues dollar moves may matter more than oil for multinational earnings and EM stress.