The Odd Years The Real Impact of AI and Making Sense of the Disconnect in Our Economy. A Conversation With the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip.
Mar 13, 2026
Greg Ip, The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator known for clear macro analysis. They unpack the disconnect between market gains and public pessimism. They discuss how the Iran war and oil shocks ripple through prices. They debate AI’s real impact on jobs and why tech-driven anxiety shapes public mood.
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Why Modern Oil Shocks Pack Less Punch
- Oil shocks hurt growth and raise inflation but their effect is smaller today because the U.S. uses much less energy per GDP than decades ago.
- U.S. shale production returns more money to Americans and volatility matters more than a single price spike for long-term damage.
Fed Independence Determines If Oil Blips Stick
- A temporary energy-driven inflation spike can become persistent if the Fed lowers rates for political reasons and lets higher energy costs embed into wages and other prices.
- Greg warns history (1970s under Arthur Burns) shows politicized central banks risk long-lasting inflation.
Good Data Won't Erase Postpandemic Pain
- Good macro numbers (GDP, stock market, lower headline inflation) can coexist with broad public pessimism because inflation followed a large spike in 2022–23.
- Voters want prices to fall, not just rise more slowly, and campaign promises (e.g., large energy cuts) heighten disappointment.