The Intelligence from The Economist Food awakening: Iran’s ripple effect
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Apr 15, 2026 
Kira Huju, Asia correspondent covering religiously motivated violence in India. Catherine Brahic, environment editor explaining climate drivers like El Niño. Avantika Chilkoti, global business writer on geopolitics and supply chains. They discuss how Iran-related shipping disruptions are slowing food and fertiliser flows. They outline El Niño’s risks to harvests and the timing pressures on planting and aid.
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Fertilizer Supply Threat From Gulf Disruptions
- The Iran–US conflict is disrupting not just oil but fertilizer and food supply chains through shipping blockades and targeted attacks.
- About 30% of traded fertilizer passes the Strait of Hormuz, and gas shortages and damaged plants are throttling fertilizer production.
War's Slow Burn On Farm Costs
- The current shock to agriculture is more gradual and indirect than the Russia–Ukraine crisis because Gulf countries are not major food producers.
- Rising energy and fertilizer costs raise farm input bills (up to ~50% of costs in rich countries) without immediate food-price spikes.
El Niño Could Multiply Hunger Risks
- A likely El Niño later this year could amplify food insecurity by producing extreme regional weather like droughts or floods.
- The 2023–24 El Niño caused southern Africa's worst drought in a century, leaving ~30 million needing aid.