The Moynihan Report Iran, Israel, & a new era of political violence | The Moynihan Report
20 snips
Mar 13, 2026 
Eli Lake, investigative journalist and foreign policy commentator, outlines Trump administration plans toward Iran and the real military risks. He explores possible Iranian opposition figures and the limits of organizing a unified revolt. They debate arming Kurds, post-conflict scenarios from color revolution to chaos, and the role of Israeli intelligence and U.S. policy in the region.
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Multiple U.S. Strategies For Iran Are In Play
- The Trump administration and Israel may pursue multiple endgames in Iran, ranging from a negotiated strongman to active regime weakening.
- Eli Lake says options include backing figures like Ali Larijani or bankrolling broad ethnic coalitions, highlighting intelligence-led opportunities after heavy strikes.
Weaken Iran Without Nation Building
- A likely U.S.-Israeli aim is to weaken Iran enough to stop regional threats without committing to nation-building.
- Eli Lake frames this as a realist strategy: degrade capabilities, avoid long occupation, and hope domestic opposition finishes the rest.
Regime Collapse Relies On Security Defections
- Nonviolent protest succeeds when it persuades the regime's security personnel to defect or refuse orders, not simply when it gains global sympathy.
- Lake cites Gene Sharp theory and examples like Serbia where defections of enforcers ended regimes.
