HousingWire Daily Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies?
Mar 31, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst on mortgage and housing market data, breaks down how Jobs Week and the Jobs Friday report could move bond yields and mortgage rates as tensions with Iran rise. He walks through weekly housing trackers that remain steady, key mortgage rate thresholds that influence demand, the 10-year yield’s behavior versus oil, and why mortgage spread compression matters for affordability.
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Housing Demand Still Positive Despite Global Shocks
- Weekly pending sales and purchase applications remain positive year over year despite recent global shocks.
- Logan Mohtashami shows the tracker data stayed positive even while oil spiked and yields rose, indicating demand resilience.
6.64% Rate Threshold Predicts Housing Strength
- Mortgage rates below about 6.64% historically improve housing data, while rates above 7% soften it.
- Logan notes 2026 benefited from tighter spreads so rates stayed under that inflection and demand held up.
10-Year Yield Double Top Limits Rate Spike
- The 10-year yield diverged from oil during the weekend reversal, falling despite higher oil.
- Logan points to a forming double top around 4.46–4.48% on the 10-year that limits further mortgage-rate moves unless broken.