Here's Why Here's Why Nuclear Brinkmanship is Back
Feb 6, 2026
Gerry Doyle, global defence editor and nuclear arms analyst, explains New START and why its lapse matters. He outlines how the treaty kept U.S. and Russian deployed warheads in check. He describes risks of rapid 'uploading' of warheads, legal gaps left behind, and how shifts could ripple to China, India and Pakistan. He assesses the tough road to any new agreement.
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New START Kept Nuclear Numbers Transparent
- New START provided limits and transparency that kept US and Russian deployed warheads roughly equal and known.
- Its lapse removes those verification checks and returns arsenals to greater uncertainty and risk.
Compliance Kept Forces Constrained
- Gerry Doyle says both sides complied and reported deployed warheads, keeping deployed totals around 1,670 each.
- That compliance meant the treaty effectively limited usable nuclear forces despite broader tensions.
Uploading Warheads Is The Easy Step
- Lapse won't require new weapons; both sides can 'upload' warheads from reserve onto multi-warhead missiles.
- The US could nearly double deployed warheads and Russia increase by roughly 1.5x, raising deployed totals into the mid-2,000s.