Middle East Focus Venezuela's Shadow Over MENA: Perceptions and Precedents
11 snips
Jan 15, 2026 
Ken Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute and former U.S. analyst, dives into how the Trump administration’s handling of Nicolás Maduro might reshape U.S. policy in the Middle East. He discusses the impact of U.S. military options against Iran’s regime during ongoing protests and evaluates the risks of economic coercion. Pollack contrasts the quick Venezuelan operation with the complexities in Iran, highlighting how such precedents could shift perceptions of U.S. resolve and influence regional stability.
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Desperation Raises Unpredictable Threats
- Iran retains ballistic missiles, naval and air capabilities, proxy networks, and uncertain cyber tools that could be used if the regime feels existentially threatened.
- Pollack stresses the danger that desperate regimes may pull out all stops, including cyber attacks, whose full scope is unknown.
Avoid Tariffs As Primary Leverage
- Avoid using broad 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran because they likely target trade partners like China and provoke retaliation.
- Pollack argues such tariffs would harm U.S. interests more than Iran and risk a trade war with China.
Preference For Quick, Low-Cost Wins
- Trump seeks quick, visible wins that require little long-term commitment, which explains operations like Venezuela's capture of Maduro.
- Pollack warns that such short-term actions may leave long-term chaos or unintended outcomes for others to resolve.
