POLITICO Energy A surprising winner of the Iran war: China?
Mar 16, 2026
Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy and former National Security Council energy adviser, lays out why the Iran war could bolster China’s energy reach. He discusses China’s long-term strategy on oil exposure, its clean‑energy and EV push, dominance in supply chains, and how countries may hedge between the U.S. and China.
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China Built Energy Resilience Before The Crisis
- China intentionally reduced exposure to volatile oil and gas markets by electrifying its economy and building strategic reserves.
- Policies include half of car sales being electric and a 1.5 billion barrel strategic oil reserve that cushions shocks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Electrification Could Swap One Dependence For Another
- A pivot to electrification can reduce dependence on volatile oil and gas but increases reliance on clean energy technologies.
- China dominates supply chains for solar, batteries, EVs and critical minerals, creating a new relative dependence if states electrify rapidly.
Stability Trumps Ideology For Some Trade Partners
- Countries may prefer predictable commercial partners when hedging amid great-power rivalry, and China aims to appear steady.
- Jason Bordoff notes many states tell him they 'don't want to choose' between the U.S. and China and seek diversification instead.