The David McWilliams Podcast

The Brittle Housing Market: Why the System Is Worse Than You Think - Part 1

28 snips
Apr 7, 2026
Ronan Lyons, a Trinity College economist focused on housing supply and affordability, explains why modern housing is 'brittle' rather than a classic bubble. He talks about shortages and wrong-sized homes, why prices hide quantity problems, the rise in young people stuck sharing or living with parents, and how planning, land rules and demographics have created a systemic shortfall.
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INSIGHT

Brittle Versus Bubble Housing Crisis

  • Ronan Lyons distinguishes a brittle housing system from a bubble where pressure builds gradually and the system fails to accommodate changing needs.
  • In a brittle system fallout is social and political: young adults forced to live with parents, overcrowd, or emigrate rather than a sharp financial crash.
INSIGHT

Prices Mislead Solutions

  • Focusing only on prices or rents misdirects policy; quantities and housing mix matter more for long‑run affordability.
  • Example: ~60% of younger adults in Ireland live with parents or shared households, but only ~20% would prefer that, signalling a shortage of small homes.
INSIGHT

Headship Reveals The Missing Homes

  • Headship (share heading their own household) reveals hidden shortfalls: Spain shows a ~12 percentage point gap implying ~1.5 million missing smaller homes.
  • Similar shortfalls appear across Sweden, Netherlands and Czechia, not just Anglophone countries.
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