"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis Is AI Stalling Out? Cutting Through Capabilities Confusion, w/ Erik Torenberg, from the a16z Podcast
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Oct 29, 2025 
Erik Torenberg, an insightful entrepreneur and AI policy debater, joins to explore whether AI progress is truly stalling. He discusses the significant strides in capabilities, like the impressive expansion of context windows and advancements in reasoning and vision. The duo dives into AI's potential job impacts and the controversial topic of protectionism. They also ponder over the future of labor roles, emphasizing coding’s role in recursive improvement debates and the intersection of AI with critical fields like biology and materials science.
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Onboard Users To Reveal True Productivity
- When testing AI productivity, train users and measure active usage, not idle wait time.
- Provide product notifications and onboarding to reduce time lost to distractions while agents run.
Job Disruption Will Vary By Vertical
- Many high-volume back-office jobs are straightforward targets for AI-driven automation.
- Some roles will shrink a lot while others (like elite engineers) may remain but shift in nature.
Progress Could Be Curbed By Politics
- Some AI advances could be paused by social backlash or regulation (e.g., bans on self-driving cars).
- Protectionism and cultural conflict are possible brakes on diffusion even if capabilities progress continues.