WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch Who's Winning in Iran After a Month of War?
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Mar 30, 2026 Discussion of U.S. military progress and unclear strategic aims in the Iran conflict. Debate over possible limited ground missions and their risks. Analysis of whether indirect negotiations with Iranian factions are real. Assessment of oil-market fallout from disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and why European allies are hesitant to intervene.
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Iranian Factionalism Makes Negotiations Uncertain
- Internal Iranian politics complicate negotiation prospects.
- Paul Gigot notes President Masoud Pazeshkian may disagree with IRGC hardliners but it's unclear he can deliver regime-wide concessions for a deal.
U.S. Campaign Is Degrading Iran’s Military Capacity
- U.S. strikes are making measurable progress against Iranian military targets.
- Joe Sternberg and Elliot Kaufman note steady degradation of Iran's navy, missiles and industrial military capacity after sustained targeting since week one.
Proxy Forces Have Been Less Active Than Expected
- Some Iranian proxy fronts have remained surprisingly quiet so far.
- Elliot Kaufman highlights the Houthis' delayed activity, interpreting limited proxy mobilization as a favorable sign for the U.S. campaign.