Q+A with Jack Tame “Extreme risk”. How Iran war exposes NZ’s national security vulnerabilities
Mar 21, 2026
John Howard, retired Major-General with 40 years in military and US Defence Intelligence, warns NZ is unprepared for strategic shocks. He discusses how the Iran war exposes supply vulnerabilities, the risk of fuel shortages and allocation dilemmas. He questions NZ’s strategic planning, defence readiness and the implications for regional alignments.
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Predictable Strategic Build Up
- John Howard says the Iran conflict's strategic build-up was predictable given carrier movements and coordinated US-Israeli action.
- He points to precise intelligence and immediate strikes on regime leadership as clear signs the operation was planned long in advance.
Rupture Of Rules Based Order
- Howard frames recent crises as a rupture of the rules-based international order that reduces multilateral protections for small states.
- He links events from Ukraine to Gaza as evidence that multilateralism is weakening and this has immediate consequences for New Zealand.
Prioritise Practical Short Term Planning
- Howard urges moving beyond reactive statements to practical short-term measures and strategic planning for fuel and supply disruptions.
- He warns boardrooms must assess diesel certainty for fishing, forestry and transport rather than rely solely on economists.