Pete the Planner on student loan collections, recessions, stagflation (and holding our breath)

These are uncertain times for the U.S. economy. We’re in a grace period for many of the Trump administration’s promised tariffs on dozens of trading partners. U.S. consumer confidence plunged again in April, hitting its lowest level since October 2011. First-quarter gross domestic product for the U.S. hit negative territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. On May 7, the Federal Reserve again opted to hold interest rates at the same level, wanting to wait and see how President Trump’s tariff policies shake out. In the financial press, pundits are quibbling about how close we could be to a recession. At the same time, there are several positive indicators for the economy, including strong jobs reports. Trump recently told Americans via social media to “BE PATIENT!!!” for the economic boom that his policies will create. 

In essence, we’re holding our collective breath to see how all this plays out.

In the meantime, the Trump administration on May 5 resumed collecting on defaulted student loans, ending a five-year pause that began during the COVID-19 pandemic. For more than 5 million student loan holders currently in default, this is significant news, and millions more could join them in the near future. The redirection of their income to loan repayment likely will have an effect on the economy as well.

IBJ columnist Peter Dunn, aka Pete the Planner, returns to the podcast this week to sift through the data and help us get a footing in this economic limbo. He also takes a closer look at the decision to resume collecting on defaulted student loans and the possible consequences.