The Economics Show Is AI (finally) making us more productive? With John Burn-Murdoch and Sarah O’Connor
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Mar 12, 2026 
Sarah O’Connor, labour market journalist tracking AI’s effects on work and productivity. John Burn-Murdoch, data journalist who mines economic trends. They probe where AI is showing up in productivity data. They compare firm-level anecdotes with weak macro signals. They debate which professions are exposed, whether perceived time-savings match measured gains, and if we’re at a real inflection point.
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No Clear Macro Productivity Takeoff Yet
- Macro productivity data show no clear AI-driven takeoff yet because GDP and hours worked are reported with long lags.
- John Burn-Murdoch notes the US fourth-quarter GDP surprise weakens claims of a current big productivity liftoff tied to AI.
Industry Correlations Are Weak But Emerging
- Industry-level comparisons mostly show little correlation between AI adoption and productivity gains, though recent US data hints at a small positive relationship.
- Sarah O’Connor cites the St. Louis Fed style analyses and warns samples are thin and not definitive.
Task Speedups Can Create New Bottlenecks
- Task-level speedups often hit organizational bottlenecks so faster individual work may not increase final output.
- John Burn-Murdoch explains accelerated tasks can just create bigger choke points elsewhere in workflows.