At Any Rate Global Commodities: Gas Finds a Tighter Balance
Feb 27, 2026
Otar Dgebuadze, JPMorgan’s lead on European natural gas research, breaks down market fundamentals in a lively chat. He walks through January’s weather-driven price spikes and why storage shortfalls and delayed LNG projects tightened 2026 balances. He also compares TTF and NBP dynamics and outlines how new infrastructure could ease pressures after 2027.
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Weather Was The Primary Driver Of January Gas Spikes
- Weather drove January gas spikes on both sides of the Atlantic causing TTF near €40 and Henry Hub above $7.00 per MMBtu.
- January was about one standard deviation colder and peaks were much colder, while February warmed causing prices to moderate and ease LNG pressure.
Geopolitics Hits Oil More Than Gas
- Geopolitical risk from U.S.-Iran talks added a modest premium to gas prices but markets are pricing a larger premium into oil.
- Otar sees oil (Brent ~ $73) trading ~$11–$12 above fair value, implying Iranian oil risk is more priced than Strait of Hormuz LNG flow disruption.
Price Forecast Raised Because Supply And Storage Tightened
- J.P. Morgan nudged up its 2026 European gas price forecast by €2–€3 in Q3 and winter 26–27 due to tighter market fundamentals.
- Tighter outlook reflects low EU storage (~30%), large January withdrawals, and delay of Qatar North Field East to early 2027.