Rainer on Leadership The Burge Report: The Latest Data on Transgender Young Adults and the Church
In this episode, Ryan Burge and Sam examine newly released national survey data that reveal a significant shift in how young adults understand and report gender identity. Drawing on high-quality data from the Cooperative Election Study, the research shows a clear and statistically meaningful decline in the share of 18–22-year-olds identifying as transgender since 2020, with similar downward trends appearing across older age cohorts as well.
While 2020 appears to be a high-water mark, likely shaped by unique social and cultural conditions during the pandemic, subsequent years show a “snap back” toward a lower baseline. The discussion also explores how transgender identification intersects with politics, education, and religiosity, noting substantial declines among young Democrats and among religious young adults.
For church leaders, this episode offers an important reminder: cultural narratives move quickly, but long-term ministry requires patience, clarity, and compassion. Understanding real data, rather than headlines, helps churches respond with both truth and grace.
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- Transgender identification among young adults has declined sharply since 2020.
- The drop appears across political, educational, and age groups—not just Gen Z.
- Religion remains a significant factor, with religious young adults reporting much lower identification.
- Churches should ground their responses in careful data, not cultural panic or assumptions.
Resources:
- “The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and Us” by Ryan Burge (affiliate link)
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