Wall Street Breakfast Fed meets as oil shock roils outlook
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Mar 15, 2026 A Fed meeting frames the conversation as oil price shocks and Iran tensions push yields higher. Traders' odds for future rate cuts and the Fed's dot plot get close attention. Micron's upcoming results and DRAM pricing are previewed. Headlines on tech layoffs and corporate moves round out the market-focused briefing.
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Oil Shock Has Changed The Fed Outlook
- The Fed meeting faces a very different backdrop than a month ago due to an oil price surge and rising yields.
- WTI moved toward $100 after U.S. strikes on Iran's key export facility at Karg Island, pushing 10-year yields up about 20 bps to 4.28%.
Markets See Minimal Fed Easing This Year
- Markets now price almost no Fed tightening but only limited easing, with swaps implying ~20 basis points of cuts by year-end.
- Fed funds futures still show ~60% chance of one 25 bp cut, while Goldman expects first cut in September and 50 bps by year-end.
Dot Plot Could Tilt Stagflationary
- The Fed will release an updated dot plot this meeting and Wells Fargo expects it to show modest stagflationary tilt.
- Forecasts may show slightly higher inflation into 2027, softer GDP, and a small uptick in unemployment for 2026.