Value Hive Podcast Harris Kupperman (Praetorian Capital): Brazil, Commodities, and Strategy
45 snips
Nov 28, 2025 
Harris Kupperman, a hedge fund manager known for his macro insights, dives into his bullish Brazil thesis, highlighting the effects of a weak dollar and high real rates. He discusses the potential of Brazilian beef exporters over fertilizers and elaborates on macroeconomic shifts in Latin America. Kupperman contrasts security selection versus ETFs in emerging markets and shares his thoughts on commodity trends driven by China. He candidly shares lessons from past mistakes, advocating for long-term strategies and measured risk.
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Refute Your Macro Thesis Daily
- Constantly try to refute your macro view by tracking diverse forward-looking datapoints and operator conversations.
- Use LPs and customers as primary sources rather than lagging, politicized government stats.
The Economy Is Rotting From The Bottom Up
- Economic weakness has been spreading from the bottom up: lower-income consumption first, then middle class, now everyone except the top 10%.
- The top 10% sustain consumption via asset-backed borrowing, masking broad rot in the real economy.
Fit Winning Stocks Into A Narrative
- When parts of the market break out, ask why and fit them into your narrative before sizing up.
- If you can build a plausible causal story, accept the trend and hold through volatility.