The David Lin Report The S&P 500 Is About To Get Crushed, Here’s What’s Breaking Out Next | Jim Welsh
Jan 16, 2026
Jim Welsh, Founder of Macro Tides and market analyst, dives into the complexities of today's financial landscape. He discusses the seemingly healthy technical indicators and the looming threat of a secular bear market driven by rising debt and housing issues. Welsh highlights potential catalysts for a significant market drop and the impact of geopolitical risks. He also touches on the challenges young adults face in the housing market and consumer spending, emphasizing how these factors could reshape economic policies.
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Don't Sell Just Because Valuations Feel High
- You need a concrete reason to sell; broad selling only follows clear economic or monetary shocks.
- Welsh advises using fundamentals and technicals together before deciding to reduce exposure.
Major Trend Indicator Supports Limited Declines
- Welsh's proprietary major trend indicator (back to 1928) confirms the market's technical resilience for now.
- He expects typical declines of 3–7% rather than a meaningful >7% drop while the indicator stays healthy.
Dollar And Yields Are Top Macro Risks
- Key macro risks to monitor are Treasury yields and the dollar, which could rise if tariff/legal outcomes change deficit dynamics.
- Welsh flags a dollar break above 102 and higher yields as potential sale catalysts.