The Biggest Risk Markets Face Is On No-Ones Radar Right Now | David Hay

29 snips

Feb 1, 2026

David Hay, founder and former CIO of Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter, warns of a little-noticed risk: massive foreign repatriation out of U.S. assets. He discusses dollar breakdowns, shifting capital flows, and why commodities, metals, and international markets may surge. Short, sharp takes on technical breakouts, country-specific catalysts, and where opportunities could appear.

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ADVICE

Trade By Breakouts And Respect Breakdowns

Watch for breakouts and breakdowns rather than opinions when timing entries or exits.
Exit quickly when a security breaks down and ride winners after confirmed breakouts.

INSIGHT

Foreign Outflows Could Overwhelm Passive Buying

Hay highlights a far larger risk than passive domestic inflows reversing: foreign capital repatriation.
He warns foreign outflows could swamp the 'giant mindless robot' passive bid and severely pressure U.S. asset prices.

INSIGHT

Massive Post‑COVID Foreign Inflows Into U.S. Stocks

Since COVID, roughly $1.6 trillion flowed into U.S. equities while international markets saw tiny inflows.
This extreme overexposure by foreigners sets up a material reversal risk if they stop or reverse flows.

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Right now, the "giant mindless robot" of passive capital flows appears to be the most important macro trend in keeping stock prices rising.So many worry that a stalling -- or reversal -- of these passive flows is the #1 risk to markets.But today's guest, David Hay, founder & former CIO of Evergreen Gavekal, sees an even greater risk -- one that practically no one else is paying attention to.There are a growing number of reasons why foreign capital is likely to start draining out of the US financial markets.And it could reach a volume where those flows are even bigger than the giant mindless robot of domestic passive flows.This would severely tank the prices of many US financial assets.To learn why, David has prepared a slide presentation that you simply must watch.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#capitalflows #exchangerates #commodities _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.