Rick Rule: Copper Has to Go Up (Plus, His Uranium & Rare Earths Outlook)

Feb 13, 2026

Rick Rule, veteran natural-resources investor known for mining and energy expertise, shares bold takes on copper, uranium, and rare earths. He explains why copper faces a decade-long supply gap and rising demand. He discusses how higher uranium term prices and contracts reshape producer economics. He gives a stark, selective view on which rare-earth projects might actually get built.

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INSIGHT

Rare Earths Are Not Truly Rare

Rare earths are abundant but unexplored because they were too cheap and China dominated production.
Rising Chinese production costs and geopolitics are lifting the floor price for global rare earths.

INSIGHT

China's Costs Set A New Price Floor

Chinese environmental costs and regulation have raised Chinese rare-earth production costs by about 30% in 18 months.
That increase establishes a new global floor price irrespective of geopolitics.

ADVICE

Be Selective And Speculative In Rare Earths

Avoid most junior rare-earth developers; only two or three outside China merit deep study.
Treat the sector as speculative with a 3–5 year horizon and be ready to lose half your capital.

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You Asked, Rick Rule Answers…

In just 8 minutes, Rick Rule lays out his outlook for copper, uranium, and rare earths. He explains why he believes copper prices “have to go up” over the next decade, driven by rising demand and a supply gap he says “cannot be bridged.” He also walks through how decades of underinvestment, permitting delays, and the capital required just to maintain production could keep pressure on the market. On uranium, Rick explains why ~$90 term pricing and long-term contracts can change producer economics, and why he prefers Cameco over the juniors. Finally, he gives a hard-nosed view on rare earths, arguing they aren’t truly rare, most projects will never be built, and the best opportunities may be limited to a small handful of developers.

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