The Intelligence from The Economist Poised and confused: the will-he-won’t-he of Iran strikes
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Feb 26, 2026 
Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent reporting on Iran’s military build-up and regional risks. Annie Crabill, senior digital editor tracing America’s fraught path from founding to civil war. Alexandra Suich Bass, culture editor recommending films and critiquing TV like Bridgerton. They discuss possible US strikes on Iran, how diplomacy might still avert conflict, America’s 250th-era tensions, and sharp entertainment picks.
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Trump's Buildup Is Leverage Not Certainty
- Donald Trump uses military buildup and vague rhetoric to create leverage for a negotiated outcome with Iran rather than committing to full-scale strikes.
- Gregg Carlstrom explains Trump prefers a diplomatic off-ramp, using carrier groups and deployments as bargaining chips while keeping options ambiguous.
Protests And Crackdown Prompted U.S. Buildup
- The current crisis traces to nationwide protests in Tehran last December and Trump's social-media warnings to the Iranian regime.
- Gregg Carlstrom recounts Iran's violent crackdown killing at least 7,000 protesters and how that pressured Trump to build up forces.
Comprehensive Iran Deal Is Unlikely
- The feasibility of a comprehensive deal is low because Iran refuses to negotiate ballistic missiles or proxy activity, leaving nuclear-only talks as the plausible route.
- Carlstrom notes past U.S. demands to end enrichment clash with Iran's unwillingness to give it up.