Talking Geopolitics Between Giants: The Middle Power Paradox
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Feb 10, 2026 
George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and seasoned geopolitical analyst. He critiques the idea of middle powers banding together and explores economic limits of value-based coalitions. He discusses risks of decoupling, the deep US–Canada entanglement, and the fragile state of Cuba’s economy and strategic options.
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Like-Mindedness Masks Deep Divisions
- Cultural and strategic differences among middle powers undermine the idea of a unified 'like-minded' bloc.
- Friedman notes Germany, South Korea and Canada have divergent values, geographies, and security needs that limit collective action.
Weigh Markets Against Security Needs
- Don't assume economic cooperation can replace security dependencies with great powers.
- Nations should assess both market size and defense imperatives before attempting strategic decoupling.
The Decoupling Paradox
- 'De-risking' from the U.S. faces a paradox: to avoid U.S. whims, middle powers would need an alternative that doesn't exist.
- Friedman emphasizes China doesn't import enough to replace U.S. markets, so decoupling cancels itself out economically.