Milk Road Macro The Commodity Supercycle Is Back: The Macro Shift That Could Reshape Markets
Feb 26, 2026
Sal Gilbertie, veteran commodities trader and CEO/CIO of Tucrium Trading, brings decades of market and ETF experience. He explores why real assets are regaining focus in 2026. He discusses geopolitics shaping soy and grain markets. He connects AI and electrification to copper and power demand. He also explains commodity ETFs, leverage risks, and tokenization moves like XRP.
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Commodities Are Simple Supply And Demand
- Commodities are pure supply-and-demand plays with broad portfolio exposure.
- Sal Gilbertie emphasizes every physical item touches commodities and they act as portfolio stabilizers separate from equities.
China Controls Global Soybean Dynamics
- China dominates global soybean demand, shaping exporter fortunes.
- Sal notes Brazil, the US, and Argentina are the only meaningful suppliers and Chinese purchasing can materially tighten US balance sheets.
Buy Grains Near Their Breakeven Price
- Trade agricultural grains near their production breakeven to limit downside and capture drought-driven upside.
- Sal points out corn's breakeven around $3.50–$4 and the 'golden grain cycle' where corn has doubled thrice in 17 years during supply shocks.