BBC Inside Science Is the Earth warming faster than we expected?
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Mar 12, 2026 Kit Yates, mathematical biologist and science communicator, and Laura Wilcox, atmospheric scientist specializing in aerosol–climate interactions. They discuss new analyses that suggest recent warming has sped up. Short-term variability is separated from forced trends. Possible causes covered include cleaner air revealing greenhouse warming, rising methane, and cloud changes.
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Air Quality Improvements Can Unmask Warming
- Cleaner air in East Asia can temporarily accelerate surface warming by removing reflective aerosols that masked greenhouse gas warming.
- Wilcox's team ran multi-model experiments showing air-quality improvements produce additional warming consistent with observations.
Rising Methane Adds To Recent Warming
- Increasing methane emissions are another contributor to recent extra warming and may include natural releases from melting permafrost.
- Wilcox notes industrial methane rises accompany CO2 and permafrost thaw could create a positive feedback.
Test Warming Drivers With Multi Model Experiments
- Use large ensembles of climate model simulations to test hypotheses about causes of accelerated warming.
- Wilcox recommends running multi-model experiments on aerosol, SST, cloud and methane changes to identify drivers.