Hedgeye Podcasts Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2026 | Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tressis
May 3, 2026
Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tressis and former hedge fund manager, shares sharp macro views on currencies, energy, and monetary policy. He challenges de-dollarization claims and explains why the dollar still dominates. They debate central bank drivers of currency moves, UK inflation risks, euro strength, stagflation versus crisis scenarios, and who is most exposed to energy shocks.
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Why De-dollarization Is Largely Ideological
- De-dollarization is mainly an ideological wish rather than a practical shift in global money usage.
- Daniel Lacalle argues reserve currency status depends on liquidity, deep markets, independent institutions, and legal/investor security that few alternatives provide.
Trade Currencies Based On Pending Central Bank Policy
- Trade currencies with a focus on expected central bank actions rather than ideological narratives about reserve status.
- Keith McCullough and Daniel Lacalle stress positioning (e.g., short dollar/buy pound) must follow pending policy differences between Fed, ECB, and BoE.
UK Is More Susceptible To Inflationary Pressure
- UK faces higher inflation risk due to earlier elevated inflation and aggressive government spending that raises money velocity.
- Daniel Lacalle highlights UK and possibly Canada as outsized stagflation risk compared with US and euro area.
