The Lawfare Podcast

Lawfare Daily: Ukraine’s Asymmetric Blueprint in the Black Sea

Dec 16, 2025
Cat Buchatskiy, Director of Analytics at the Snake Island Institute and expert on modern warfare, shares insights on Ukraine's innovative maritime strategy in the Black Sea. He discusses the evolution of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) that have turned the tide against Russian naval superiority. The conversation highlights Ukraine's shift to domestic drone production, the critical role of foreign suppliers like China, and plans for international drone exports. Buchatskiy also uncovers lessons from the Black Sea that could inform global naval strategies.
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ANECDOTE

Sevastopol Raid And Historic Jet Kill

  • A 2022 Sevastopol port raid used reconnaissance USVs followed by a swarm to infiltrate and damage docked Russian ships.
  • Ukraine also mounted Sidewinder missiles on a Magura USV and shot down a Russian fighter jet.
INSIGHT

Economics Make Unmanned Kits Decisive

  • USVs and small unmanned systems offer extreme cost-effectiveness versus traditional platforms.
  • That cost ratio preserves Ukraine's competitiveness against Russia's larger military industrial base.
INSIGHT

Sea Warfare Changes The Cost Calculus

  • Sea warfare changes incentive calculus: ships are finite and can't be replaced like ground troops.
  • Russia avoids exposing valuable vessels because losses cannot be easily replenished.
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