The WARC Podcast Big Tech's continued dominance defines 2025 ad spend
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Sep 30, 2025 In this discussion, James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence, and Forecasting at WARC, shares insights on the continued dominance of the 'triopoly' of Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, expected to grow their ad market share significantly. He reveals an upward revision in global ad spend, driven by robust retail spending amidst economic challenges. The conversation explores how online platforms capture nearly all growth, with TikTok's rise fueled by retail investments. James highlights the mixed outlook for media and publishing, while also identifying key sectors thriving in the ad market.
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Triopoly Controls Over Half The Market
- The Amazon/Alphabet/Meta triopoly holds 56% of the global ad market (ex-China) and could exceed 60% by 2030.
- Nine of every ten dollars of growth this year went to online-only platforms, starving legacy media.
Legacy Media's Tiny Growth Slice
- Legacy media owners are fighting over the remaining 10% of growth, roughly $9.5bn this year.
- That amount is about what Facebook earns in a single month, highlighting the imbalance.
Retailers' Tariff-Driven Spending Spike
- In Q2, retailers poured spend into TikTok and Instagram ahead of US tariff 'Freedom Day'.
- That windfall reflected retailer concern about supply chains and price risk from new trade tariffs.