Big Take War in Iran Is Exposing Oil Risks Across Asia
Mar 5, 2026
Fereidun Fesharaki, founder of FGE and oil‑market expert, and Daniel Ten Kate, Bloomberg Asia political and economic reporter, discuss Iran-related disruptions to shipping and the Strait of Hormuz. They cover China’s stockpiling and diplomatic balancing, which Asian economies face biggest exposure, and scenarios that could push oil prices sharply higher.
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Asia's Oil Vulnerability Hinges On Hormuz Chokepoint
- Asia is highly exposed because roughly half of China's crude imports and much of Japan and India's oil transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- Disruptions there could spark rapid price spikes since alternative pipelines are limited and only Saudi/Abu Dhabi pipelines shift 3.5mbd.
China Stocks Up While Keeping Diverse Suppliers
- China has been quietly stockpiling crude onshore while buying ~90% of Iran's oil, but Iranian barrels are under 15% of China's total imports.
- Russia and Saudi Arabia remain Beijing's main suppliers, making full displacement of Iranian oil feasible though pricier.
Iran's Oil Is Regionally Important But Replaceable
- Iranian crude is important regionally but counts for about 3% of global supply and China can largely replace those barrels from other Middle Eastern suppliers.
- Iran's exports mainly flow to smaller Chinese 'teapot' refiners, while major listed refiners avoid Iranian crude to not violate sanctions.