The Markets $120 Oil Ahead?
42 snips
Mar 4, 2026 Jerome Dortmans, co-head of Global Oil and Products Trading at Goldman Sachs, brings frontline trading and geopolitical market expertise. He discusses supply at risk from the Iran conflict, which products are most vulnerable, regional winners and losers, trading biases to watch, and scenarios that could push oil toward $100–$120. Short, clear takes on escalation triggers and market signals.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Physical Barrels Are Already At Risk
- The Iran conflict is already affecting physical barrels with up to 20 million b/d of crude and 5 million b/d of products at risk.
- Jerome Dortmans says these are meaningful, unhedgeable volumes that can quickly eliminate recent global stock builds if disruptions persist.
Every Day Of Disruption Deepens The Shortage
- Even limited daily losses matter because built stocks from late last year would be drawn down fast if 20 million b/d stays affected.
- Dortmans warns OPEC can't meaningfully replace that volume and some production is inaccessible inside the Gulf.
Two To Three Days Could Push Oil Toward $100
- Dortmans estimates two to three days of sustained disruption brings serious market consequences and a drift toward $100/bbl.
- He says every additional day increases contagion and domino effects across unaffected regions.