Everything Energy What’s next for the global car industry?
Jan 9, 2026
Elizabeth Connolly, an energy technology analyst and co-author of an IEA report, and Leonardo Paoli, also an energy analyst focusing on battery supply chains, dive into the pivotal changes in the global car industry. They discuss the rising dominance of electric vehicles, forecasting a quarter of car sales will be electric by 2025. Connolly highlights China's production surge and the shifting landscape of car ownership in emerging economies. Paoli reveals the dramatic decline in battery costs and the concentration of battery manufacturing in Asia, emphasizing the need for diverse electrification paths.
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EVs Are Driving Recent Sales Recovery
- Conventional ICE car sales peaked in 2017 and have fallen about 30% since then.
- All post-pandemic recovery in car sales has been driven by electric and hybrid vehicles.
China Dominates Global Car Production
- China doubled its car production from 2010 to 2024 and now holds about 40% of global manufacturing capacity.
- Europe and North America each account for roughly 15% of global capacity.
China's Policy-Led EV Rise
- China combined targets, low-cost loans, and local innovation to build domestic EV champions.
- As a result, over 80% of EVs sold in China come from Chinese automakers.