BTC Sessions

This Isn't America vs Iran — Here's Who's Actually Fighting | Simon Dixon

17 snips
Mar 11, 2026
Simon Dixon, founder of BnkToTheFuture and Bitcoin macro analyst, unpacks the financial forces driving the Iran conflict. He maps a fight between militarized interests and global capital. Topics include China's manufacturing leverage, Gulf sovereign funds hedging east, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and a possible April summit that could reset world order.
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ANECDOTE

Affinity Partners As A Gulf Influence Channel

  • Gulf money used Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners as a feeder to influence Trump and US financial ties.
  • Dixon cites Affinity Partners' $5 billion of Gulf capital and Kushner's role in brokering Gulf-BlackRock relationships.
INSIGHT

Military Capital Versus Financial Capital

  • The conflict is framed as MIC versus FIC: military-industrial complex wants perpetual war; financial-industrial complex seeks regional stability to unlock returns.
  • Dixon predicts the financial-industrial complex will likely win by co-opting Gulf capital and China.
INSIGHT

Regional Stability Is The Ultimate Trade

  • The biggest financial trade is regional stability: control of the Middle East and Hormuz would unlock unprecedented returns for transnational capital.
  • Dixon frames diplomatic normalization with Gulf, Iran, and China as the endgame that boosts global investment opportunities.
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