Joseph Fournier: “There is not one greenhouse effect; there are two” | Tom Nelson Pod #374

Joseph Fournier presents “part two” on how Pacific Walker circulation controls Earth’s largest greenhouse effect: cloud longwave radiative forcing. He explains cloud radiative forcing terminology, cites literature claiming cloud greenhouse warming dwarfs CO2 forcing, and shows satellite-era links between trade winds, cloud shifts during ENSO, outgoing longwave radiation, and global/tropical temperature anomalies. He contrasts absorbed solar radiation, OLR, and Earth energy imbalance, arguing global averages can be dominated by regional Pacific dynamics. He reviews multidecadal “dimming/brightening” sunshine trends in Europe, Japan and the U.S., discusses aerosols vs natural drivers, and briefly addresses future uncertainty, AMO/IPO impacts, and solar/cosmic-ray hypotheses. 

00:00 Welcome Back: Joseph Fournier & Why This Is “Part Two”

02:15 Cloud Basics 101: Shortwave vs Longwave, Net Cloud Radiative Forcing

05:51 Albedo Matters: How Small Cloud Changes Rival CO₂ Forcing

08:40 Evidence in the Literature: Trendberth and Early Satellite Cloud Forcing Maps

14:28 Clouds vs CO₂ Since 2000: Step-Change in Cloudiness and OLR

16:56 Geography Over Global Averages: The Western Pacific Warm Pool Hotspot

20:12 Warm Pool Size, SST, and Real-World Impacts (Winters, ENSO Timescales)

22:48 Walker Circulation Explained: Where Deep Convection Sits in La Niña vs El Niño

25:34 Warm Pool “Thermal Capacitor”: Thermocline Slosh, Water Volume, and Cloud Shift

30:32 Sea Level Pile-Up and the Gravity-Driven Discharge During El Niño

32:36 Radiation Signatures of ENSO: DLW/OLR Links to Niño Indices

36:13 Cloud Forcing Ratios & Decadal Patterns: What El Niño Does to Warm Pool Clouds

40:34 Global Signals: OLR vs Global Air Temperature and the ENSO Lead–Lag

45:14 Trade Winds as the Control Knob: Linking Pacific Easterlies to Global OLR

47:44 Tropical temps, OLR & trade winds: Walker circulation link

48:42 Clouds as the “other knob”: absorbed shortwave (ASR) vs temperature

50:29 2023 El Niño cloud changes: low-cloud cover & shifting albedo

53:49 ASR vs OLR since 2000: the hiatus ends and the energy budget shifts

55:44 Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) vs GAT: why the correlation breaks

57:58 Seasonal cycle first: EEI swings, hemispheres, clouds & land–ocean contrast

01:00:10 Wrap-up: two greenhouse effects & a call for academics to test it

01:02:54 Sunshine hours & AMO: UK/Europe brightening over the 20th century

01:07:26 Aerosols vs clouds: modern satellite trends and the “brightening” debate

01:11:53 Global dimming/brightening goes global: Japan/China records & Pacific teleconnections

01:12:56 Natural vs human drivers: when aerosols don’t explain surface radiation

01:18:13 Forecasting the next decade: sun, AMO/IPO, cooling claims & big uncertainties

01:26:17 Closing remarks: slides, Substack, and the climate–energy–geopolitics link

More information about Joseph Fournier: https://co2coalition.org/teammember/joseph-fournier/

His 2024 presentation: https://youtu.be/P2hVW0R67CY

Joseph’s Substack: https://josephfournier.substack.com/

X: https://x.com/JosephF55175005

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