Crypto Banter Bitcoin Has One Hurdle To Beat Before Going Higher! [Data]
Mar 11, 2026
A data-driven look at whether Bitcoin can keep rallying amid rising geopolitical tensions and oil market chaos. Discussion of using oil moves and Polymarket odds to read conflict timelines. Examination of surprising dollar and Bitcoin correlation and potential institutional flows tied to an April regulatory deadline. Technical counterpoints warn the current playbook might repeat and cool momentum.
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Markets Tell A Clearer Story Than Headlines
- Follow the charts and prediction markets to see through war headlines.
- Ran Neuner cites oil price charts and Polymarket showing ~53% chance the conflict ends by April 30 and rising to ~70% by June.
How Negative Oil Prices Liquidated My Trade
- Ran shares a personal trading loss when oil futures went negative during COVID.
- He was long oil, got liquidated even unleveraged because contracts required physical delivery as prices fell below zero.
Bitcoin Has Been The Best Performing Large Asset
- Bitcoin outperformed other trillion-dollar assets during the conflict, rising ~11.4% since the war began.
- Ran points to Bitcoin beating QQQ and links to chartist Peter Brandt's bullish banana pattern toward much higher targets.